"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those instead of parlays. Some of you might not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and IF it wins you then place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the next team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and secure the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you wish to make an "if" bet. "If" bets may also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If the first game wins, you should have action on the second game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books won't allow you to complete the next game later. You need to designate both teams once you make the bet.
You can create an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 once you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the next team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you'll win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, instead of just $10 of vig, each time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split but the loser may be the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and make a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The second bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This sort of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the second "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also function as same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would cost you $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the second combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You would lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs when the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller lack of $60 rather than $110 when the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the excess $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B may be the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it has the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations offer you a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an an easy task to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. However, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the truth that he is not betting the next game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets reduce the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Remember that link Debet tells you that the best way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - Whenever a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays ought to be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you are waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux so you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without credit line, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you make an effort to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your mind up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a wonderful substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, you will find a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the benefit of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the truth that we make the second bet only IF one of the propositions wins.
It could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we are not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will beneath the total. As we have already seen, once you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point at which the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is simply not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations has an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we are in need of is really a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the results split for a complete increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."