There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They'll tout win rates similar to some of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Needless to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On many of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some kind of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books in business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be nearly all these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets available to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of an enormous payout while disregarding the point that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on investment.
Helpful hints on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Many table games and slots offer a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, we all know that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. Additionally, there are steps which might be taken to decrease the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful compared to the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can see every parlay it is possible to possibly bet includes a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the long term. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the planet of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go home.' The casino is clearly happy to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest number of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. It is because most bettors don't have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they can make any real cash by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a significant loss by the finish of the season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors do not place just one single parlay weekly. In football this implies at the least 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to place with such a high house edge. For example, in case you are placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each $100 you wager. Because the amount of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you'll hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in increasing your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do this by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to understand especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the long run. First of all, the best value of most parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is more than twice as much. If you take a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, but the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are likely to throw your cash away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is approximately 10 points lower than all three of these bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. You can chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your contact with several units while maintaining a reasonable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The decision is yours.