The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry an increased house edge than straight bets, therefore you give the book a bigger advantage over you when you play them. That, alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they're risking less with parlays, but they aren't. They believe they can win more with parlays, however they cannot. The higher win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are in fact risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not a single bet. It is two bets -- a one-unit bet using one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose it doesn't matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and something team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to possess been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Go ahead, create a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on whether the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't ought to be there. The skilled handicapper is always wanting to make smart investments. He tries to remove the result of luck to the best extent possible to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, you can find exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a new player to consistently parlay the first half with the game. The ball player parlayed totals by combining the over in the initial half with the over in the game, and the under in the initial half with under in the overall game. Both parlays were made in the same game. Every time the player won he would win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on the other parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he'd lose $200.
Initially, this were a great opportunity for the book. The normal coin-flip probability of winning one parlay out of your two are 50-50. So far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book began to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The issue for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. At the end of the initial half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. By the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the initial half was a winner. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 possibility of winning the "over" for the overall game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game weren't 50-50 but much better than 99% in favor of the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first half of the parlay to be virtually assured that he would collect 2.6 times his money rather than just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to try this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should Hi88 do let you do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay may be the parlay of the side and total in exactly the same game.
Any game in which the total is significantly less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in exactly the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, required that you have an opinion privately or the total. Parlaying is another solution to increase your potential win on these games, or even to develop a potential win when you have no opinion.
You can find two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a complete of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a total 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you believe that Virginia covers the 25 points, they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the game will go over the full total. The much more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will review. If you like Virginia to cover the spread, and you also believe that Duke will not be shut out, then your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the standard 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it really is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Subsequently, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is higher than the normal 25%.
Should you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only real other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has already won with the underdog for a winning two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total is to the spread on the side, the better win-rate will be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but you will find a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will help you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because a lot more are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, you can replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.