The general rule regarding parlays is: DON'T.
Parlays generally carry a higher house edge than straight bets, which means you give the book a bigger advantage over you once you play them. truy cập 789bet , alone, is reason enough to suppress the misplaced feelings of greed coupled with fear that often lead to betting parlays. People think they are risking less with parlays, but they are not. They believe they are able to win more with parlays, but they cannot. The bigger win with parlays is far outweighed by the bigger possibility of losing. Parlay bettors are actually risking more, with less probability of collecting.
A parlay is not an individual bet. It really is two bets -- a one-unit bet on one team and a two-unit bet on another. Which team gets the two-unit bet? In point-spread betting at constant money odds, if both teams win or both teams lose no matter which team gets the double bet. When one team wins and one team loses, however, the double bet is presumed to have been on the loser. How smart is that for the bettor? Just do it, make a parlay. We'll wait until both games are over, and in case there is a split we'll put the double bet on the loser. If your bookmaker sold you a parlay with that line, just how many of you'll still make the bet?
A parlay can be bad money management. In a parlay you either bet double on the next team, or nothing on that same team, dependant on if the first game won or lost. That adds an element of luck to your betting that doesn't must be there. The skilled handicapper is definitely seeking to make smart investments. He tries to get rid of the effect of luck to the greatest extent possible in order to make his results as predictable as possible.
Much like every rule, however, there are exceptions. The exception to the rule regarding parlays occurs when the two bets are co-dependent.
I knew one bookmaker who was taken for thousands because he didn't understand the co-dependency of certain bets. He allowed a player to consistently parlay the first half with the overall game. The player parlayed totals by combining the over in the first half with the over in the overall game, and the under in the first half with under in the game. Both parlays were manufactured in the same game. Each time the player won he'd win 2.6 times his bet. Betting $100 on each parlay, if one of them won, the ball player would win $260 and lose $100 on another parlay for a net win of $160. He could never win both parlays. If he lost both parlays he would lose $200.
At first glance, this appeared to be a great chance for the book. The normal coin-flip odds of winning one parlay out of the two are 50-50. As far as the bookie was concerned the bettor ought to be winning $160 half enough time, and losing $200 half the time. The bettor, however, making $500 parlays, was ahead a lot more than $20,000 after 6 months, and the book started to look at what the bettor was doing more carefully.
The problem for the bookmaker was that both halves of each parlay were co-dependent. By the end of the first half, the bettor was hardly ever in a 50-50 situation.
Take the Thursday night game between Utah and Air Force. The game total was 53 and the first half total was 27. At the end of the initial half, the score was 31-21, for a complete of 52 first-half points. The first half of among the parlays, the "over" in the first half was successful. For the parlay probability to be correct, there should now be considered a 50-50 probability of winning the "over" for the game. Obviously the odds of winning the "over" in the game were not 50-50 but much better than 99% and only the "over." The ball player only needed to win the first 1 / 2 of the parlay to be virtually assured he would collect 2.6 times his money instead of just $10 for $11.
Before you rush out to use this, be aware that most off-shore books are far too smart to allow you to parlay first half to game. Should they do permit you to do this, start fretting about collecting because that book will soon be taken up to the cleaners.
You can find, however, some less obvious co-dependent parlays that may still be made at many books. One kind of co-dependent parlay is the parlay of the medial side and total in the same game.
Any game where the total is less than double the spread can provide you an advantage in parlaying side to total in the same game. We've already discussed, in a prior article, how exactly to use these anomalous side and total combinations to hedge each other and boost your win with hardly any increase in risk. Such a bet, however, needed that you have an opinion on the side or the total. Parlaying is another method to increase your potential win on these games, or to create a potential win for those who have no opinion.
There are two games this Saturday that qualify. They're Virigina -25 over Duke with a total of 48 �, and Kansas St. -24 � vs. North Texas with a complete 46 �).
In the Virginia game, if you were to think that Virginia covers the 25 points, then they must hold Duke to no more than 11 points or the overall game will go over the total. The more likely it becomes during the game that Virginia will cover 25 points, the much more likely it becomes that the overall game will review 48 �. The wider Virginia's winning margin, the much more likely the game will go over. If you want Virginia to cover the spread, and you believe that Duke will never be shut out, in that case your probability of winning a parlay on Virginia and the over are greater than the normal 25%. Likewise, if the scoring stays low, it is less likely that Virginia covers the 25 points. Due to this fact, the probability a parlay of the under with the underdog will win is greater than the normal 25%.
When you have no opinion on the overall game, you can parlay the favorite with the "over" and the underdog with the "under" and collect sufficiently often to exceed the losses when both parlays lose. In the only other game meeting the qualifications this week -- Friday's game between California -30 against New Mexico State with a total of 58 -- the under has recently won with the underdog for an absolute two-parlay spread.
The closer the posted total would be to the spread privately, the better win-rate will undoubtedly be on the parlay "spread" bet. The co-dependency in side to total parlays is not as strong as parlaying first half and game totals (if it were, most books would not allow such bets), but there is a sufficient co-dependency in the games with low totals and high spreads to make the strategy profitable long-term.
Not all bookmakers will allow you to parlay the medial side to the full total in exactly the same game, because an increasing number of are realizing these bets are occasionally co-dependent. But, enough books still do allow such bets so that you can consider including such bets in your professional betting arsenal.
If your bookmaker provides "if/reverse" bets, it is possible to replace the parlay bet with an "if/reverse" bet and achieve greater success.